服务业对外直接投资的出口效应——基于我国微观企业的研究

文章基于我国服务业上市企业数据，采用多维固定效应模型，探讨和分析了我国服务业OFDI对服务贸易出口的影响，经研究发现：第一，服务业OFDI通过吸收东道国先进技术经验提升企业生产率水平和避开东道国服务贸易壁垒降低贸易成本，促进企业服务贸易出口增长；第二，我国服务业OFDI显著提升了企业服务贸易出口的二元边际，具体而言，整体上服务业OFDI会促进服务贸易出口增长4.82%，同时会提升企业的出口概率；第三，我国服务业OFDI"出口效应"存在明显的区域和行业的异质性，具体表现为：生产性服务业和消费性服务业OFDI存在显著的"出口效应"，其OFDI带动服务贸易出口的增长分别为5.68%和3.52%，而公共服务业则不存在显著的"出口效应"；东部地区和中部地区服务业OFDI存在显著的"出口效应"，其OFDI带动区域服务贸易出口的增长分别为4.97%和3.56%，而西部地区则不存在显著的"出口效应"。上述研究结论对化解我国服务贸易出口增长困境和完善服务业对外直接投资政策机制具有一定的启示意义。     

非互惠的零关税待遇是否促进了受惠国的出口多样化——基于中美对非洲贸易政策的比较研究

非互惠的优惠贸易待遇是世界贸易组织和国际社会支持发展中国家尤其是最不发达国家发展的重要工具。为了评估该政策的效果,本文以中美对非洲实施的零关税待遇为例,采用2001—2017年HS8位贸易数据从整体、行业和区域层面评估了两种政策对受惠国出口多样化产生的影响。结果显示,美国零关税待遇分为AGOA-GSP和AGOA-服装两个条款,中国零关税待遇(FOCAC)在遵循WTO规则、受惠商品范围、受惠国家标准、原产地标准及政策有效期方面均优于AGOA-GSP,但在原产地标准灵活度和政策优惠力度方面低于AGOA-服装。这些特征导致三类政策对受惠国出口多样化的影响产生显著的差异。整体上,FOCAC和AGOA-服装对受惠国出口多样化均产生了显著的积极影响,而AGOA-GSP的影响不显著;行业层面,FOCAC对受惠国制造业、矿业和农业的出口多样化均产生了显著的促进作用,而AGOA的两个条款对受惠国三个细分行业出口多样化的影响均不显著;区域层面,三类政策对受惠国出口多样化的影响仅在部分区域发挥效果。     

提高出口退税能够“稳就业”和“稳外贸”吗?

近年来,全球贸易保护主义抬头加剧了各国之间的贸易摩擦。本文以中美贸易为例,探讨中国出口退税政策在稳就业、稳外贸以及应对贸易摩擦中的作用机制。首先基于1994-2020年季度数据发现:中国就业的波动较平稳;净出口则呈现高波动特征;中国就业和净出口呈现弱顺周期。这些周期特征与其他国家存在显著差异。其次构建了一个含有不完全金融市场和价格不完全传递的对称两国开放经济DSGE模型,数值模拟发现:在本国出口退税冲击和它国技术冲击下,模型能够较好地拟合中国就业和净出口的周期特征,其中财富效应和由贸易条件变化引起的支出转移效应是主要的内在传导机制。借助模型对中美贸易摩擦的反事实实验发现:中国单方面提高1%出口退税时,中国就业增长0.05%,净出口增长0.28%,呈现较强持续性,提高出口退税能够稳就业和稳外贸;当中国提高1%出口退税和美国提高1%进口关税时,中国就业增长0.03%,净出口增长0.16%,呈现较强持续性,勒纳中性不成立,此时出口退税在稳就业和稳外贸中的作用尽管有所削弱,但依然有效。     

海归与企业出口行为:来自中国的微观证据

海归能否促进母国企业的出口？目前国内还尚未有文献专门对此进行研究。本文使用工业企业微观数据、海关贸易数据以及中国上市公司治理结构研究数据库的合并样本,系统评估了海归对企业出口行为的影响。研究发现,海归对企业出口产生了积极作用,并且上述正向的“出口拉动”效应在样本期内具有持续性而且是逐年递增的。进一步,我们考察了地区制度环境的重要性,发现良好的地区制度环境有利于强化海归对企业出口的促进效应。最后,行业出口质量的动态分解表明,资源再配置效应对行业出口质量提高的贡献高达54%,其在海归促进行业出口质量提高中发挥了关键作用。本文从微观层面证实了海归“出口拉动”效应的存在,对我国有效挖掘海归在提升企业出口竞争力方面的优势和潜力具有政策参考价值。     

经济政策不确定性如何影响企业出口决策？——基于出口频率的视角

出口频率作为出口决策的重要一环,是企业出口扩张的新边际,也是出口变化的“晴雨表”。本文在随机存货模型的基础上,考察了经济政策不确定性对企业出口频率的影响及其传导渠道,并采用2000-2006年工业企业数据库与海关数据库的匹配数据进行实证检验,结果发现:目的国经济政策不确定性增加会显著降低企业出口频率,且这一影响存在部分惯性效应;经济政策不确定性通过贸易成本、存货成本和市场需求波动共同影响企业出口频率的中介效应十分显著,其中贸易成本是最重要的传导渠道,占比达到19%以上;如果进一步考虑目的国、产品和企业异质性,会发现出口目的国经济发展水平较高、出口产品为中间品和消费品的企业,其出口频率受经济政策不确定性的影响较小。因此,政府和企业应高度关注出口频率的变化趋势,合理应对经济政策不确定性对出口决策的外部冲击。     

Effects of export product diversification on quality upgrading: an empirical study

This paper empirically examines the effects of export product diversification on overall export quality in a panel data set of 115 countries from 1970 to 2010. It uses the data sets of the overall export quality and three export diversification measures of the International Monetary Fund: the extensive margin (variation in the number of new products exported), the intensive margin (variation in export values among existing exports), and the overall (Theil) index. It finds that export quality has only been increasing with a higher variation in export values among existing exports in low- and lower-middle-income countries. It also observes that export quality has been increasing with both a higher variation in export values among existing exports and new products exported in upper-middle- and high-income countries. The results are robust to the changing measures of controls in the benchmark model, the inclusion of many other controls; i.e. various measures of globalization, country size, factor endowments, macroeconomic stance, etc., and the exclusion of outliers.     

Does the US EXIM Bank really promote US exports?

This paper investigates the impact of US Export‐Import Bank (EXIM ) on US exports particularly in the wake of international competition from foreign national export credit agencies (ECA s). We employ a gravity framework on a country‐industry‐year‐level panel data set that matches EXIM authorisations with US bilateral exports. Our results depict the general ineffectiveness of the Bank in promoting exports within and across industries. Some heterogeneities behind the general finding are also uncovered: industries other than aerospace parts and products are more likely to benefit from EXIM authorisations, and EXIM authorisations to larger businesses seem to be more effective in encouraging exports. Furthermore, we find no evidence that EXIM encourages US exports by offsetting foreign ECA competition. These results are neither affected by competing countries’ membership to the OECD Arrangement nor by the size of American firms that received EXIM support. Our results cast doubt on the ubiquitously positive claims made by the Bank and its supporters, yet also provide policy lessons for countries that are either in the inception stages of establishing their own ECA s or are now placing greater importance on ECA financing in encouraging exports.     

技术性贸易措施对中国企业出口决策的影响--基于出口强度与市场范围视角的考察

本文利用企业出口决策模型阐明了技术性贸易措施对企业出口强度和市场范围的影响,并基于2010-2015年中国出口企业的微观数据进行了验证。研究表明:技术性贸易措施对企业出口规模和市场范围的扩大具有显著的阻碍作用;并且企业受影响频次比越高,负面效应越明显;技术性贸易措施影响的覆盖范围越广泛,就越能倒逼企业进行有效应对,其负面效应将有所减弱;具体到技术性贸易措施的不同类型,技术法规与标准主要制约企业出口强度的扩大,而合格评定程序则主要限制企业出口市场范围;但不管哪种类型的措施,对农产品企业的负面影响程度都会高于工业品企业。     

Challenges to the use of fertilisers derived from human excreta: The case of vegetable exports from Kenya to Europe and influence of certification systems

Land degradation and inadequate faecal sludge management are two major issues in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The transformation of human excreta into soil amendments and their wide-scale adoption could improve soil health and contribute to solving the sanitation crisis in SSA. There are however perception challenges around these fertilisers because of the potentially harmful components they contain such as pathogens and heavy metals, which can be removed with appropriate treatment such as composting. A major barrier to the wide scale commercialisation of human excreta derived fertiliser (HEDF) is the unclear regulations surrounding their use. The aim of this study was to identify barriers to the use of HEDF by farmers participating in the horticultural export market with Kenya as focus area since horticultural exports are a major contributor to the country’s economy. Global GAP is the most widely adopted standard for quality assurance of horticultural crops and the use of human sewage sludge is currently not allowed on certified farms. Interviews with stakeholders along the food export chain highlighted the complex interactions that exist between them and showed that Global GAP certified farmers were not willing to use HEDF on their farms even if local regulations recognise treated sludge as a valid input to agriculture. Several countries (like the UK, Sweden, Australia and the USA) created specific certification or assurance schemes to improve public perception of biosolids. The creation of a similar assurance or certification scheme specific to fertilisers made from source-separated human excreta would be a step into formalising them as a product, establishing production procedures, limits on contaminants content as well as testing protocols. Such a certification scheme could increase the confidence of regulating bodies in HEDF and lead to their acceptance by global farming standards.     

小世界网络视角下外向型开放式创新输出机制建模及仿真研究

现有关于网络环境下开放式创新的研究大都聚焦于内向型开放式创新，对于外向型开放式创新的关注不足。为更加真实地展现创新网络中知识创新、创新输出的整体行为机制，基于小世界网络仿真建模方法，从创新输出企业视角，探究创新输出与创新网络、创新绩效之间的内在关系。结果发现：网络关系强度、创新开放度与网络整体知识水平呈正相关关系，而个体网络规模与网络整体知识水平呈非线性相关关系；网络关系强度与网络知识水平分布均匀性呈正相关关系，创新开放度、个体网络规模与网络知识水平分布均匀性均呈非线性相关关系；当企业创新能力较强、解吸能力较弱时，网络整体知识水平和网络知识分布差异较大。创新输出企业可以结合网络结构和网络关系，优化创新网络、主体能力与创新开放度，制定开放策略，从而实现获取创新收益与保持自身竞争优势的双重平衡。